After a noisy start to 2025 — with market swings, tariff headlines, and political uncertainty — it’s no surprise that recession fears are making a comeback. The recent dip in GDP has raised eyebrows, but before we jump to conclusions, it’s important to take a closer look at what the numbers really say. What the […]
No Recession Yet — However Caution Is Warranted Read More »
After months of speculation about a looming recession, we may finally be seeing the early signs of a significant slowdown. Our estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is just 0.3% — a sharp deceleration that reflects a confluence of tightening fiscal policy, tariff-related uncertainty, and fading post-pandemic tailwinds. For years,
Economic Growth Stalls: What Q1 May Be Telling Us About the Road Ahead Read More »
Over the past three years, the Federal Reserve has steadily raised short-term interest rates. Meanwhile, the M2 money supply — a key measure once championed by Milton Friedman — has been shrinking, bottoming out in late 2023. Logically, tighter monetary policy should have slowed economic growth or even triggered a recession by now. Yet, it didn’t — at least not right
What’s Really Driving the Market? A Closer Look at Tariffs, Tightening, and Turbulence Read More »
If lawmakers approve major Medicaid cuts, health insurers in this market could feel financial pressure, according to Fitch Ratings. The House budget bill proposes $2 trillion in federal spending cuts over the next decade, with $880 billion affecting Medicaid. Critics warn this could increase state costs and cause coverage losses for many. For 2025, insurers
Medicaid Cuts and Impact on Insurers Read More »
After the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in late 2024, Treasury yields have unexpectedly climbed. What’s driving this counterintuitive trend? Key Takeaways A Counterintuitive Market Reaction In September 2024, the Federal Reserve made headlines with a 50-bps cut to the federal funds rate, signaling that inflation was finally under control. That move was followed by additional
Why Are Interest Rates Rising After the Fed’s Rate Cuts? Read More »
January 24, 2025 | President Donald Trump’s initial health care policy actions indicate a potential rollback of key Biden-era initiatives aimed at reducing drug costs and expanding access to public health insurance programs. Observers in the health care sector, including policymakers, executives, and advocates, are closely monitoring these developments to predict Trump’s broader agenda. The
With the recent declaration of former President Trump as the U.S. election winner and Republicans poised to control both the Senate and House, markets have surged. U.S. equities rallied, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar saw significant increases. Yet, despite this positive initial response, investors face considerable uncertainty over how policies will shape up
Republican Sweep Sends Markets Higher, Policy Uncertainty Looms Read More »
Starting in 2024, a new provision under Section 110 of the SECURE 2.0 Act allows employers to offer matching contributions to 401(k), 403(b), governmental 457(b) plans, and SIMPLE IRAs based on employees’ qualified student loan payments (QSLPs) instead of their traditional elective contributions. This change aims to help employees who are burdened by student loans
IRS Update: Rules for Employer Matching on Student Loan Payments Read More »
New IRS Regulations on the “10-Year Rule” for Inherited IRAs The IRS has published new regulations impacting taxpayers subject to the “10-year rule” for required minimum distributions (RMDs) from inherited IRAs or other defined contribution plans. These regulations, which take effect in 2025, mandate that many beneficiaries must take annual RMDs during the 10-year period
IRS Releases Final Regulations on Inherited IRAs Read More »
Decades ago, Milton Friedman explained that monetary policy impacts the economy with long and unpredictable delays. Recent reports indicate that the effects of the monetary tightening in 2022-23 are starting to wane. Both inflation and economic growth are slowing down. In June, consumer prices dropped by 0.1%, the biggest monthly decrease since the early COVID
The Era of Tight Money is Ending Read More »
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