In 1852, Karl Marx famously said that while people shape their own history, they do so under circumstances not of their choosing, but inherited from the past. While there’s truth in that, what Marx may have underestimated was how a bold experiment across the Atlantic would defy that pattern. The …
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Debt Downgrade: What It Means — and What It Doesn’t
On May 16, Moody’s officially lowered its credit rating on U.S. government debt to Aa1, its second-highest grade. With the national debt climbing past $36 trillion, the move isn’t exactly shocking — but it’s noteworthy because Moody’s was the last of the big three ratings agencies to act. S&P downgraded …
No Recession Yet — However Caution Is Warranted
After a noisy start to 2025 — with market swings, tariff headlines, and political uncertainty — it’s no surprise that recession fears are making a comeback. The recent dip in GDP has raised eyebrows, but before we jump to conclusions, it’s important to take a closer look at what the …
After months of speculation about a looming recession, we may finally be seeing the early signs of a significant slowdown. Our estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is just 0.3% — a sharp deceleration that reflects a confluence of tightening fiscal policy, tariff-related uncertainty, and …
What’s Really Driving the Market? A Closer Look at Tariffs, Tightening, and Turbulence
Over the past three years, the Federal Reserve has steadily raised short-term interest rates. Meanwhile, the M2 money supply — a key measure once championed by Milton Friedman — has been shrinking, bottoming out in late 2023. Logically, tighter monetary policy should have slowed economic growth or even triggered a recession by now. Yet, …
Medicaid Cuts and Impact on Insurers
If lawmakers approve major Medicaid cuts, health insurers in this market could feel financial pressure, according to Fitch Ratings. The House budget bill proposes $2 trillion in federal spending cuts over the next decade, with $880 billion affecting Medicaid. Critics warn this could increase state costs and cause coverage losses …