(Legacy) Blog

Alex Steinbrecher

Blogs

Tariffs Are Not Going Away

Reports that the latest round of tariffs are “dead” are premature. The Supreme Court recently ruled against several of the newer tariffs imposed under emergency trade authority. In a narrow...

No Rate Cut

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at this week’s meeting. Going into Wednesday, futures markets were pricing a…

Five Global Shifts That Could Fuel International Equity Momentum

Five Global Shifts That Could Fuel International Equity Momentum For over a decade, U.S. equities have led the pack, driven by innovation in tech and strong corporate earnings. However, 2025...

When the Fed Stops Being Neutral

For years, many economists have raised concerns about the Federal Reserve’s “abundant reserves” approach and the long-term consequences of…

Peering Through the Data Fog

We have rarely seen economic data as contradictory and difficult to interpret as it is today.

2026 Forecast: Still Wary

Last year, we expected economic growth to slow. In hindsight, the results were mixed. GDP data suggest we were wrong, while employment…

Greedy Innkeeper or Quietly Generous Host?

During the holidays, we often revisit the familiar story of Mary and Joseph arriving in Bethlehem. According to the Gospel of Luke, their…

No More Flying Blind

After weeks of limited visibility, economic data is finally coming back into focus.

America’s 3.5-Second Miracle

In 1852, Karl Marx famously said that while people shape their own history, they do so under circumstances not of their choosing, but inherited from the past. While there’s truth...

Debt Downgrade: What It Means — and What It Doesn’t

On May 16, Moody’s officially lowered its credit rating on U.S. government debt to Aa1, its second-highest grade. With the national debt climbing past $36 trillion, the move isn’t exactly...

No Recession Yet — However Caution Is Warranted

After a noisy start to 2025 — with market swings, tariff headlines, and political uncertainty — it’s no surprise that recession fears are making a comeback. The recent dip in...

Economic Growth Stalls: What Q1 May Be Telling Us About the Road Ahead

After months of speculation about a looming recession, we may finally be seeing the early signs of a significant slowdown. Our estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter...